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Selasa, 27 Maret 2012

UJI HIPOTESIS

 

Hipotesis Statistik : pernyataan atau dugaan mengenai satu atau lebih populasi. Pengujian hipotesis berhubungan dengan penerimaan atau penolakan suatu hipotesis. Kebenaran (benar atau salahnya ) suatu hipotesis tidak akan pernah diketahui dengan pasti, kecuali kita memeriksa seluruh populasi. (Memeriksa seluruh populasi? Apa mungkin?). Lalu apa yang kita lakukan, jika kita tidak mungkin memeriksa seluruh populasi untuk memastikan kebenaran suatu hipotesis? Kita dapat mengambil sampel acak, dan menggunakan informasi (atau bukti) dari sampel itu untuk menerima atau menolak suatu hipotesis.
Nilai yang diasumsikan dinyatakan dalam :
  •  Ho atau null hypothesis
  •  H1 atau alternative hypothesis
Null hypothesis diuji berhadapan dengan alternative hypothesis. Teori pengujian hipotesis akan memutuskan apakah apakah Ho ditolak atau diterima. Keputusan menolak atau menerima didasarkan pada test statistik yang diperoleh dari sampel, setelah dibandingkan dengan nilai kritis dari distribusi statistik yang bersangkutan dalam tabel.
TIPE HIPOTESIS :
Tipe  A → Ho : µA = µB
                    H1 : µA ≠ µB
Tipe  B → Ho : µA ≤ µB
H1 : µA > µB
Tipe  C → Ho : µA ≥ µB
H1 : µA < µB
PENGUJIAN HIPOTESIS :
1. Tentukan Ho dan H1 (ini tergantung pada jenis hipotesis yang dipakai dan soal seperti apa yang hendak kita kerjakan sesuai tipe hipotesis diatas).
2. Tingkat signifikan 5 % atau 1% (ini adalah tingkat ketelitian peneliti dalam menguji hipotesis, jadi semakin kecil tingkat signifikan akan semakin teliti pengujian ini)
3. Statistik uji : t (student)  jika sampel kurang dari sama dengan 30 dan z (normal)  jika sampel lebih dari 30.
4. Komputasi :

5. daerah kritik -z1/2(1-a)<z<z1/2(1-a)      dan -t(1-p)<t<t(1-p)
6. Keputusan uji. Jika z atau t berada pada daerah kritik maka Ho ditolak.
7. Kesimpulan

DALAM STATISTIKA ADA BANYAK SEKALI PENGUJIAN HIPOTESIS DARI MULAI DENGAN UJI HIPOTESIS RATAAN,  VARIANSI, SAMPAI DENGAN PROPORSI. SEMUA MEMILIKI STATISTIK UJI YANG BERBEDA DAN ADA JENIS-JENISNYA.

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Rabu, 08 Februari 2012

Analysis of Normative Sampling Distribution of Smokers with the Central Limit Theorem

Introduction

Smoking is tobacco burning and then inhaled using either smoke cigarettes or use the pipe. Smoking is an object that has been familiar to the public. Smoking has become a common and widespread in the society, but smoking habits difficult to lose and under-recognized by people as a bad habit. While the reasons people smoke because of seeing their parents smoking, relieve boredom, addiction, to relieve stress, and etc.
Gaseous components of cigarette smoke is carbon monoxide, ammonia, acids hidrosianat, nitrogen oxides and formaldehyde. Particles of tar, indole, nicotine, karbarzol and cresol. These substances are toxic, irritant and cause cancer (carcinogens). Nicotine is most often found in cigarettes. Levels of nicotine in cigarettes is a 4-5mg.
The effect of smoking is influenced by the large number of cigarettes smoked, smoking duration, type of cigarettes smoked, even related to the way smoking cigarettes. That is, the more cigarettes smoked, the longer the habit of smoking, higher levels of tar and nicotine that is inhaled, the more a person smoked in cigarettes, the higher the effect of destruction that will be received by that person.
From the WHO statistics 2011, Indonesia became the country with the largest cigarette consumption number 3 behind China and India and on Russia and the United States. Whereas the total population, Indonesia is in a 4th position that after China, India and the United States. Different to the number of American smokers tend to decline, the number of smokers Indonesia actually gain in 9 years. Growth in Indonesia cigarettes in the period 2000-2008 was 0.9% each year.
Data of smokers in Indonesia stated that 34% of adults, adolescents 13.5%, 52.5% tobacco-free. As for the statistics of teen smokers in Indonesia from 2011 WHO report data for Indonesia that 24% of young men, young women 4%, and 72% do not smoke. Therefore we raised the theme of teen smoking is to be discussed and processed using the method of normative sampling distribution, with the scope of citizens Faculty of Science and Technology of Airlangga University.



Problem

How the percentage of smokers from the citizens of the Faculty of Science and Technology of Airlangga University, what can be inferred, and solutions to minimize the smokers from the citizens?

Analysis

Table of Smokers and No Smokers Citizens Faculty of Science and Technology
Teenager
(17-19 years)
Adult
(20-35 years)
Old
(36-55 years)
Sum
Smokers
5 people
6 people
3 people
14 people
No Smokers
9 people
2 people
-
11 people
Sum of Sample
25 people


Bar Chart Smokers and No Smokers Citizens Faculty of Science and Technology



From some citizen Faculty of Sains and Technology of Airlangga University consisting of students, staff, and sellers who are in the cafeteria, taken 25 samples that 14 people are smokers and 11 were not smokers. The average citizen Faculty of Sains and Technology consume 3 bars / person. Then take a random sample of 25 people, 6 people were consuming <3 bars, 4 people consume 3-5 bars, 4 persons consuming > 5 bars. With details of a data size of 14, is {2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8} with the sample we can calculate, that:
nsmokers= 14 people
nno smokers= 11 people
=3 bars/person
N=  (because the population is not know)
By using the principle 1 of sampling distribution using the Central Limit Theorem of Distribution-t
Formula:
The Average or Mean
= =  =  = 3,78

Varians random sample of size n
S2 =
]
=  0,077 [3,17+3,17+3,17+3,17+7,73 +7,73+0,61+0,65+ 0,65+1,49+4,93+ 4,93+ ....10,37+17,8 ]
= 0,077 × 68,37
= 5,26449

Standart Deviasi
S =   =   = 2,294

tcount or the value of a random variable T
tc= =  =  =  = 1,273

ttable =  = 1,711 (look at the table of distribution-t)
That:  < ttable, so the above statement is true.
The solution to minimize the smokers are:
1.    Stop smoking by instilling a strong will to get out of the habit
2.    Let the smokers realize the health dangers of smoking for body
3.    Choosing good friends who do not like smoke, and shun friends who have a culture of smoking
4.    Trying to reduce cigarette consumption, little by little on a regular basis every day
5.    Divert attention when the desire of smoking on themselves, such as diverting the desire to smoke with eating candy, eating healthy snacks or eat fruit
6.    There is no harm in asking for help families to help us stop these bad habits, such as by way of reminding us of the dangers of smoking, more intensive chatting to divert our attention to the cigarettes or act decisively when we violate our smoking rehabilitation process.

Summary

From the above calculations, the conclusion that the citizens of FST smoking more at age 20-35 years more than with smokers aged 36-55 and 17-19 years. And for the no smokers at age 17-19 years more than the age of 20-35 years. So, citizens of Faculty of Science and Technology of Airlangga University are more smokers than no smokers.

Bibliography

Walpole, R.E. 1995. Pengantar Statistika. Edisi ke-3. Jakarta: Gramedia.

Narimawati, U., and Munandar, D. 2008. Teknik Sampling: Teori dan Praktik dengan Menggunakan SPSS 15. Yogyakarta: Gava Media.
                   
Hoel, P.G. 1971. Introduction to Mathematical Statistics. Fourth Edition. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Sediono. 2011. Diktat Statistika I. Surabaya: Universitas Airlangga.

Anonim. 2011. Negara Jumlah Perokok Terbesar Di Dunia. Accessed on http://nusantaranews.wordpress.com/2009/05/31/10-negara-jumlah-perokok-terbesar-di-dunia/
 
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Kamis, 02 Februari 2012

Sinopsis Miss Ripley

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